I heaved a sigh of relief while I read the latest Gross Domestic (GDP) Report published by Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics. Nigeria is finally out of a recession. Nigeria’s GDP grew by 0.11% (year-on-year) in real terms in Q4 2020, representing the first positive quarterly growth in the last three quarters.

Although Nigeria has marginally escaped a recession, it is at least some positive news amidst the series of negative news the COVID-19 Pandemic has caused the global economy.

                              NIGERIA’S REAL GDP GROWTH (Q1 -Q4 2020)

Breakdown of the Q4 2020 Performance

In Q4 2020, the aggregate GDP was N43.56 trillion in nominal terms. This performance is higher when compared to that of Q4 2019 which recorded an aggregate GDP of N39.57 trillion, representing a year-on-year nominal growth rate of 10.07%. This growth rate was relatively lower than the growth rate recorded in the Q4 2019 by –2.26% points but higher than the preceding quarter by 6.68% points with growth rates recorded at 12.34% and 3.39% respectively.

Breakdown of the GDP Report by sectors

Nigeria’s economy is divided into the oil and non-oil sector

Oil sector

In 2020, the oil sector grew at –8.89% compared to 4.59% in 2019. The oil sectors contributed 5.87% to the total real GDP in Q4 2020, down from the Q4 2019 and Q3 2020, where it contributed 7.32% and 8.73% respectively.

Non-oil Sector

In 2020, the non-oil sector contributed 91.84% to real GDP, higher than 91.22% recorded in 2019.The non-oil sector grew by –1.25% compared to the growth of 2.06% in 2019.

In real terms, the Non-Oil sector contributed 94.13% to the nation’s GDP in Q4 2020, higher than the share recorded in the Q3 2019 (92.68%) and Q3 2020 (91.27%).

The non-oil sector grew by 1.69% in real terms in Q4 2020, slower than the 2.26% recorded in the Q4 2019, but better than the –2.51% growth rate recorded in Q3 2020.

Major Driver of Growth in the sector

  • Information and Communication (Telecommunications & Broadcasting).
  • Agriculture (Crop Production), Real Estate, Manufacturing (Food, Beverage & Tobacco)
  • Mining and Quarrying (Quarrying and other Minerals), and Construction

It is our utmost desire that Nigeria’s economy keeps growing positively and remains steady. More importantly, we hope that the government’s policies would encourage a full recovery of the economy and keep same out of the woods against another recession.

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